If The MH370 Submerged In The Gulf of Thailand – Additional Points Part 2

如果MH370沉浸在泰国湾 – 附加论点第2部分

Nam Fong (Malaysian)

南方 (马来西亚人)

(H) Resolve The Time-Space Inconsistency.

(H) 厘清时间-空间的不一致.

(1) There is a serious confusion about time of event, that the MH370 is thought lost contact at 1.30 am of March 8 at 6^o55’N and 103^o34’E, because there are simulation clip and report appeared in the local and foreign media, that indicate the transponder was stopped at 1.30 am, which implies or being inferred as the MH370 aircraft disappeared from civil radar at 1.30 am. Based on my previous analysis, the time of lost contact at 6^o55’N and 103^o34’E is most unlikely at 1.30 am, if not saying it as impossible. However, the public’s and world people’s perception is casted that, at 1.30 am the MH370 was lost contact at 6^o55’N and 103^o34’E, it diverted and turned back, after 45 minutes reappeared in the northwest of Penang.   

(1) 有一个关于事故时间的严重疑惑, 既是MH370被认为是于3月8日凌晨1时30分在北纬6度55分和东经103度34分失去联络, 因为有个模拟片段和报道出现在本地和国外的媒体, 显示异频雷达发放机是在凌晨1时30分停止的, 其意指或被取意为MH370飞机是在凌晨1时30分从民用雷达上消失的. 根据我之前的分析, 在北纬6度55分和东经103度34分失去联络的时间最不象是凌晨1时30分, 若不将它说成是不可能. 无论如何, 公众和世人的看法已持定于在凌晨1时30分MH370 在北纬6度55分和东经103度34分失去联络, 它偏离了和折返, 45分钟后在槟城西北处重现.

(2) Besides the few points I mentioned in the previous publication (Additional Points Part 1), to debunk the lost contact with Subang ATC was at the time of 1.30 am, here I will bring out another point to check it out. How could it be the time when Narita Flight’s pilot contacted with MH370’s pilot was also at just after 1.30 am? Isn’t that the Vietnam ATC informed Narita Flight’s pilot minutes before he contacted the MH370? Unless there were discrepancies in their clock time calibration, otherwise it is impossible that time is lost in the space.

(2) 除了我在之前的发表(附加论点第1部分)提起的几个论点以外, 要揭穿与梳邦航空交通控制塔失联的时间是在凌晨1时30分, 这里我将提出另一个论点来核对它. 怎么可能成田航班机师联络MH370机师的时间也是在刚刚凌晨1时30分之后? 在他联络MH370之前越南航空交通控制塔是在几分钟前才通知他的, 不是吗? 除非是他们的时钟时间核准有出入, 不然的话不可能时间会在空间消失.

(3) Strictly speaking, knowing when were the times the ACARS and transponder disfunction, there is so much importance for the search of MH370 aircraft, especially when the aircraft can’t be found, their data is actually very helpful. Mistaken the time Subang ATC lost contact with the aircraft will have major implications on the search of MH370. (Note: Subang ATC is Malaysian ATC).  

(3) 严格来说, 知道飞机通讯与报告系统和异频雷达发放机什么时候失灵, 对搜寻MH370飞机是很有重要性的, 尤其是当找不到飞机时, 它们的数据实际上就有很大的帮助了. 梳邦航空交通控制塔与飞机失去联络的时间有所误差会对搜寻MH370有很大的涵义. (注: 梳邦航空交通控制塔是马来西亚的航空交通控制塔).

(4) As the media statement made by MAS on March 8, “Subang ATC had lost contact with the aircraft at 2.40 am. The last known position of MH370 before it disappeared off the radar was 065515 North and 1033443 East”. What we know now is that the position coordinates remained unchanged all the time. Whereas the time 2.40 am was then reviewed and changed to 1.30 am (as seen in MAS’s 6^th Media Statement on March 9), and this time of incident had been hold for many days. According to the Wikipedia, the time of lost contact was changed again to 1.20 am, but without comment or explanation.

(4) 即如马航于3月8日所做的媒体声明, “梳邦航空交通控制塔与飞机在凌晨2时40分失去联络. MH370 在雷达上消失之前它的位置是北纬065515和东经1033443”. 我们现在知道的是那个经纬度一直以来保持不变. 然而那个凌晨2时40分的时间后来被检讨和改成凌晨1时30分(即如所见的马航于3月9日所做的媒体声明), 而这个事故时间已保持了很多天. 根据维基百科, 失联的时间又换去凌晨1时20分, 不过没有给予评论和解释.  

 (5) If you have surfed to Wikipedia recently, you would find that (as retrieved on April 26), “01:21, last secondary radar (transponder) contact at 6^o55’15”N and 103^o34’43”E, and “01:22, transponder and ADS-B no longer operating”. In my articles I omit the data of seconds for convenience but not because of inaccuracy. It is not sure for the time being, whether these data are obtained from reliable sources or just based on Wikipedia writers’ analysis or citation. Moreover, a most recent description appeared on April 27 Sunday Star indicated “plane loses communication at 1.21 am” (graphic source: Flight Aware), this could be some insider information.   

(5) 如果你最近有浏览维基百科, 你将会发现(即如4月26日所阅取), “凌晨1时21分, 最后副雷达(异频雷达发放机)的联络是在北纬6度55分15秒和东经103度34分43秒”, 以及“凌晨1时22分, 异频雷达发放机和ADS-B不再操作”. 在我的文章里我省略了秒的数据是为了方便而不是由于非准确. 当前的时刻下不确定, 这些数据是从可靠来源获取的还是只根据维基百科作者的分析或是参考文献. 此外, 于4月27日在周日星报出现的一则最新描述显示“飞机在凌晨1时21分失去通讯交流”(图表来源:“航行意识”), 这可能是一些内部消息.  

(6) So, I am quite sure now, there is a change from the uncertain 1.30 am, to the last civil radar appearance time at 1.21 am, and the lost contact time at 1.22 am, this apparently approaching my hypothesis. The extra 8 minutes when added to the initial 45 minutes (1.30 am – 2.15 am), total up to 53 minutes would be enough to tally with the time-speed for crossing over the Malay Peninsula, it thus seemed to be reasonable for the “turn-back theory”. If the aircraft is found in the southern Indian Ocean, the most happy person should be Tony Abbott, the Prime Minister of Australia, but so far it couldn’t be found, the effort is not done yet.     

(6) 因此, 我现在相当相信, 不肯定的凌晨1时30分已有所改变, 成为最后出现于民用雷达的时间凌晨1时21分, 和失去联络的时间凌晨1时22分, 这很明显的正接近我的假设了. 当那多出的8分钟加上最初的45分钟(凌晨1时30分至凌晨2时15分), 总共53分钟就足够符合跨过马来半岛的时间-速度, 那看起来“折返理论”就合理了. 如果飞机在南印度洋被找到, 最高兴的人应该是澳洲首相东尼阿博特吧, 但是到目前还找不到它, 所做出的努力还不能收工呢.

(7) Changing the lost contact time from 1.30 am to an earlier time is in the right track toward searching the MH370 in the Gulf of Thailand, but if the purpose for making the change is to allow the Indian Ocean cruise theory looked logic and acceptably reasonable, or to accommodate the turn-back hypothesis, then it is going to encounter another round of bottle-neck in thinking. It may lead to significant consequence, but we have to wait for the official preliminary report which is expected to be released in this week. Before that, I shall commend first and verify later, let’s peek into the reasonability of last contact time 1.21 am, as compared with the time 1.19 am I thought in my previous articles.  

(7) 将失联的时间凌晨1时30分改成较早的时间, 是正确的途径朝向泰国湾去搜寻MH370, 但是如果做出更改的目的是让印度洋漫航理论看起来逻辑和可接受的合理化, 或者为了适应折返推论, 那就会遭遇另一轮思维上的瓶颈. 这可能导致显著的后果, 不过我们还须等待这个星期将公布的初步报告. 在那之前, 我先做评论后做审核, 让我们先瞧瞧最后联络时间凌晨1时21分的合理性, 和我之前的文章我所想的凌晨1时19分做比较.   

(8) In the early investigation, media conferences and news, the time transponder switched off was not mentioned, it was announced in press conference as that “… near the border between Malaysian and Vietnamese air traffic control, the aircraft’s transponder was switched off”, but the time whether 1.30 am or 1.22 am were not mentioned. On March 11, the Vietnamese official announced that before the MH370 was lost it needed another 2 minutes to enter the Vietnam airspace, again this support that the lost time should not be 1.30 am, otherwise by 1.32 am it should be close to the Vietnam coast.    

(8) 在最初的调查, 媒体发布会和新闻, 异频雷达发放机被关掉的时间没被提及, 新闻发布会宣布称“...接近马来西亚和越南的航空交通控制的界线之间, 该飞机的异频雷达发放机被关掉”, 但没被提及时间是凌晨1时30分还是凌晨1时22分. 于3月11日, 越南官方宣布MH370应该是失踪之前还需2分钟才进入越南领空, 这又再支持那失联时间不是凌晨1时30分, 不然的话凌晨1时32分时它应该是接近越南海岸.

(9) A possible source for the time 1.21 am is the article published on March 14 (I retrieved it on April 28), which examined the Flight Radar playback, and mentioned that MH370’s transponder was shut down at 1.21 am. If you try to check the Flight Radar for live air traffic, you will find that aircrafts’ tracking positions may refresh every few seconds, but sometimes delayed for some seconds, sometimes repeat the tracks, sometimes simulated ahead, sometimes could be stalled for a minute or more, some will disappeared for sometimes and then reappeared, and sometimes “no callsign”. All these may reflect the imperfectness or glitches such as of software, civil radar detection or even the transponder transmission. Although it is useful for public viewing the aircraft position, provided with good precision, but may not be suitable for very high precision as required by investigation and search.

 (9) 那个时间凌晨1时21分的一个可能来源是刊登于3月14日的文章(我是于4月28日才取获的), 它考查了“航行雷达”的重播, 以及提起MH370的异频雷达发放机是在凌晨1时21分关掉的. 如果你尝试为现时航空交通而检查“航行雷达”, 你会发现飞机的踪迹位置可以每几秒就更新, 不过有时延迟一些秒数, 有时候重放踪迹, 有时候提前模拟, 有时停顿达一分钟或更久, 有时会消失一些时候之后又重新出现, 以及有时是“没有呼叫迹象”. 这全都可反映不完美或失灵的软件, 民航雷达侦测或甚至是异频雷达发放机的传递. 虽然它对民众观察飞机的位置很有用, 假如给予好的精确度, 但是对于要求精确度很高的调查和搜寻就可能不合适了.

(10) The time 1.19 am mentioned in my previous articles, actually is the only reference time between 1.07 am and 1.30 am that I could find from media sources in the early days, the more accurate time should base on the official time 1:19:29 am (as announced on April 1) for the last conversation with Subang ATC, but by the time the conversation ended and seconds after that, it should be already 1.20 am. I did not round off the seconds to minute because the “19” is more indicative and significant, while seconds would be within the acceptable range of error. Therefore I do not change the time from 1.19 am to 1.20 am in my discussion, for the sake to avoid confusion or misunderstanding, however, the outcome would be the same in my hypothesis, that is the MH370 is in the Gulf of Thailand.    

(10) 在我之前的文章提及的时间凌晨1时19分, 其实是我初时可从媒体源找到凌晨1时零7分和凌晨1时30分之间的仅有参考时间, 比较准确的时间应该根据与梳邦航空交通控制塔的最后对话的官方时间凌晨1时19分29秒(既如4月1日所公布), 不过当通话结束时或其数秒以后, 那应该已是凌晨1时20分. 我没把秒数整化为分钟因为“19”是比较象征性和有意义的, 而秒数则在可接受的误差范围内. 因此在我的讨论中我没将时间从凌晨1时19分改去凌晨1时20分, 是为了混淆或误解, 无论如何, 其结果是和我的推论一样的, 那就是MH370在泰国湾.

       

(11) If the time 1.21 am or 1.22 am is the true time, why in the very beginning days and later for so many days it was reported as 1.30 am the time Subang ATC lost contact with MH370? A possibility is it is a sort of extrapolated time through backward calculation. It is not sure if the appearance of MH370 track on radar screen is on continuous real time basis, or it refreshes periodically every fixed interval for example 1 minute or 2 minutes. Similarly, there is doubt whether the last known position is in accordance with the 1.21 am or not. But, if the investigators have been doing effort to juggle the most probable time, so that diverting to the west could become more reasonable, and tried to accommodate the speculative theory that the aircraft had gone down into the Indian Ocean, by doing so, they are running the risks and stuck in the deadlock. 

(11) 如果凌晨1时21分或凌晨1时22分是真实的时间, 为什么在最初的几天以及后来的那么多天是被报道为凌晨1时30分梳邦航空交通控制塔和MH370失去联络呢? 一个可能就是那是一种经向后演算的外推法得出的时间. 不确定MH370在屏幕上出现的踪迹是否连续性而有实时基础, 或者它是定时内例如每一或两分钟更新. 同样的, 那最后的位置是否和凌晨1时21分符合还存有疑点. 不过, 如果调查员致力的推敲最可能的时间, 而使转向西边变成更加合理, 以及尝试去配合飞机已掉进印度洋的揣测理论, 这么做, 他们将是在冒险而陷入死胡同中.

(12) The conclusion is, on March 8, when the MH370 aircraft was at 6^o55’N and 103^o34’E, it was not long after the last conversation at 1.19 am, that means about 1.20 am, 1.21 am or 1.22 am, although the exact time for the lost contact is uncertain. After the Subang ATC realized the aircraft was out of contact, certainly they had tried to contact with the cockpit or to detect the MH370, that time should be 1.22 am – 1.25 am. The time Subang ATC informed the Vietnam ATC and requested them to contact MH370 should be 1.25 am – 1.27 am. The time Vietnam ATC informed the Narita Flight’s pilot to contact MH370 should be 1.27 am – 1.29 am, the time Narita Flight’s pilot established contact with MH370 cockpit was just after 1.30 am, the actions taken during such time span are considered quite promptly.  

(12) 结论是, 于3月8日, 当MH370飞机在北纬6度55分和东经103度34分时, 那是在最后通话的凌晨1时19分之后不久, 意思就是大约凌晨1时20分, 凌晨1时21分或凌晨1时22分, 虽然准确的失联时间不确定. 当梳邦航空交通控制塔明了该飞机是不被联络到之后, 肯定他们有尝试与驾驶舱联络或探测MH370, 那时间应当是凌晨1时22分至凌晨1时25分. 梳邦航空交通控制塔通知越南航空交通控制塔并要求联络MH370的时间应当是凌晨1时25分至凌晨1时27分. 越南航空交通控制塔通知成田航班的机师联络MH370的时间应当是凌晨1时27分至凌晨1时29分, 成田航班的机师联络上MH370机舱的时间是刚刚凌晨1时30分之后, 如此时间跨度内做出的行动可被考虑为相当快速的.

(13) So, we could further predict, the incident occurred on board should have begun seconds before or after 1.21 am, which eventually lead to cut off all kinds of communication systems. Next, I will further analyze and predict again the motion direction of the MH370.

(13) 那么, 我们就可以进一步的推测, 飞机上发生的事故应该是在凌晨1时21分之前或之后数秒开始发生, 那最终导致各种联络系统切断. 接下来, 我将分析和再推论MH370 移动方向. 

        Time and location coordinates (draft 2)

        时间与位置经纬度(草图2)