If The MH370 Submerged In
The Gulf of Thailand – Additional Points Part 1
如果MH370沉浸在泰国湾 – 附加论点第1部分
Nam Fong (Malaysian)
南方 (马来西亚人)
(G)
The Misconception of Time and Location for the Last Contact.
(G)
最后联络地点与时间的误思.
(1)
To determine whether the MH370 aircraft has crossed over the peninsular
Malaysia or not (i.e. from east coast to west coast between the time 1.30 am
and 2.15 am), it is very important to find out the precise location and the
time when it was lost contact, and the time an unknown incident began, which
lead to the MH370 tragedy. If you can’t determine the exact time or the narrowed-down
time range it lost contact, then it will be hard for you to find out the
location it lost contact in this situation. Inaccurate time judgement would
lead to confusion and mess up the investigation. For instance, during the very
first day (March 8), it was reported that the Malaysian Air Traffic Control (ATC)
had lost contact with the aircraft at 2.40 am, if that was the case, the
aircraft should have entered far into the airspace of Vietnam. Here I will
analyze what was the time when the aircraft was considered lost contact.
(1)
要确定MH370飞机有没有横跨半岛马来西亚(既是凌晨1时30分至凌晨2时15分之间从东海岸到西海岸), 非常重要的是找出它失联时的精确地点和时间, 以及导致MH370悲剧的未知事故始发的时间. 如果你不能确定失联的准确时间或狭窄的时间范围, 这种情况下你就很难找出它失联的地点. 不准确的时间将导致混淆以及使到调查混乱. 例如, 在最初的第一天(3月8日), 有报道称马来西亚航空交通控制塔与该飞机于凌晨2时40分失去联络, 如果是那样的话, 该飞机应该已飞入越南领空很远了. 在这里我将分析该飞机是何时被认为失联的.
(2)
It was reported that, at 1.07 am MH370 was approaching the east coastline of
peninsular Malaysia, which is between 5oN 103.5oE and 6oN
102.5oE, after flying about 170 nautical miles in 26 minutes (12.41 am
– 1.07 am, average speed 726 km/h) from Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA),
not yet crossing the Trengganu’s coastline, it is quite reasonable in terms of
time-speed and distance. At this time the aircraft was already maintained at an
altitude of 35,000 feet, its speed also should be about 900 km/h (about 490 knots
or nautical miles per hour), e.g. 872 km/h.
(2)
有报道称, 于凌晨1时零7分MH370正接近半岛马来西亚的东海岸线, 那是在北纬5度东经103.5度和北纬6度东经102.5度之间, 从吉隆坡国际机场起26分钟内(凌晨12时41分至凌晨1时零7分)飞行了约170海浬(平均速度726公里时速), 还未越过登嘉楼的海岸线, 在时间-速度和位置上是相当合理的. 在这时候该飞机已经保持在海拔35,000尺, 它的速度也应该是大约900公里时速(大约490海浬时速), 例如872公里时速.
(3)
Based on the reported official information, either the “last” or “lost” contact
position for MH370 was 6o55’N and 103o34’E (i.e. 6.92oN
and 103.56oE), which is about 87 nautical miles from Trengganu’s
coast (this does not include a few more nautical miles from the coast to the inland
at 1.07 am). There are at least 2 possible times in doubts for the aircraft to
reach this position: (a) If the time at this position was 1.30 am, the time
taken from the coast would be not more than 23 minutes (after 1.07 am to 1.30 am),
the speed would be 87/(23/60) equals about 227 nautical miles per hour (knots),
or about 420 km/h, which is too slow to be tallied with the normal 850-950 km/h
(e.g. 872 km/h), otherwise not long after 1.07 am or before 1.19 am it could
have rapidly slowed down. (b) If the time at this position was 1.19 am (could also
be other time between 1.20 am to 1.30 am), the time taken would be not more
than 12 minutes (after 1.07 am to 1.19 am), the speed would be 87/(12/60)
equals about 435 nautical miles per hour (knots), or about 805 km/h which is more
logical. [If the inland’s several nautical miles are taken into account for the
calculation of both speeds, the speed values will be larger, but the outcome
will not differ very much].
(3)
根据报道的官方资料,
MH370“最后”或“失联”的位置是北纬6度55分和东经103度34分(既北纬6.92度和东经103.56度), 那是离登嘉楼海岸约87海浬(这并不包括凌晨1时零7分从内陆至海岸的数海浬). 飞机到达这个位置至少有2个可能的疑似时间: (a)如果在这个位置的时间是凌晨1时30分, 从海岸过来所用的时间就不应该超过23分钟(凌晨1时零7分之后到凌晨1时30分), 速度应该是87/(23/60)等于约227海浬时速, 或者约420公里时速, 那就太慢而不符合正常的850至950公里时速了(例如872公里时速), 不然的话它就可能凌晨1时零7分不久后或凌晨1时19分之前很急的放缓. (b) 如果在这个位置的时间是凌晨1时19分(也可能是凌晨1时20分至凌晨1时30分之间的其他的时间), 从海岸过来所用的时间就不应该超过12分钟(凌晨1时零7分之后到凌晨1时19分), 速度应该是87/(12/60)等于约435海浬时速, 或者805公里时速, 那就比较合逻辑了.
[如果内陆的数海浬也算入在两个速度的计算内, 该速度的值就比较大了, 不过其结果将不会有很大的差别].
(4)
Then, the time for last contact position 6o55’N and 103o34’E
was thought to be at 1.30 am, how does this time come with? There is no proof
to show that during the last conversations till 1.19 am has there abnormal
signs in the cockpit, as far as the ground could dictate. Based on this
reasoning, by the time 1.30 am the aircraft should have traveled farther along
its normal flight path, or diverted away from the point 6o55’N and
103o34’E.
(4)
那么, 最后的联络位置北纬6度55分和东经103度34分的时间被认为是凌晨1时30分, 这个时间是怎样得来的呢? 没有证据显示在直到凌晨1时19分的最后谈话中驾驶舱内有不正常的征兆, 既如地面所能听测到的. 根据这个推论, 到凌晨1时30分时刻该飞机应该是沿着其正常航道航行更远了, 或偏离北纬6度55分和东经103度34分地点以外了.
(5)
Still the question, why the time at 6o55’N and 103o34’E and
for the last contact was said to be 1.30 am? The last transmission with Aircraft
Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) was reported to be 1.07
am, if the next time ACARS contact with ATC was 30 minutes later, that should
be 1.37 am. So, the ACARS should be switched off (deliberately) or cut off
(accidentally or incidentally) during this time range (1.07 am – 1.37 am). (a)
If it was cut off, it should be after 1.19 am, that is after the last
conversation. (b) If it was switched off, it would be harder to predict the
time was at early or later part of the time range 1.07 am – 1.37 am.
(5)
还是那个问题,
为什么在北纬6度55分和东经103度34分和最后联络的时间说成是凌晨1时30分? 该飞机通讯与报告系统的最后传递时间被报道为凌晨1时零7分, 如果下一次的飞机通讯与报告系统与航空交通控制塔联系的时间是30分钟以后, 既应该是凌晨1时37分. 因此, 飞机通讯与报告系统应该是在这个时段(凌晨1时零7分至凌晨1时37分)被关掉(蓄意的)或切断(意外或事故的). (a) 如果它是切断的,
那应该是凌晨1时19分以后, 那就是最后对话之后.
(b) 如果那是被关掉的, 那就比较难猜测是凌晨1时零7分至凌晨1时37分时段的前段或者后段.
(6)
Coincidently, the aircraft’s transponder was also not functioning, it was then found
that should be happened during either before or after the last conversation at
1.19 am. It is also not known whether it was deliberately switched off or
incidentally cut off, but it is thought could be happened any time within the
time range 1.07 am – 1.37 am. However, there is no evidence that the ACARS and
transponder were stopped functioning at different time.
(6)
巧合地, 该飞机的异频雷达发放机也失灵了, 那是后来被发现是在凌晨1时19分最后通话之前或之后的时段发生的. 也是不晓得它是被蓄意关掉还是因事故而切断的, 不过它被认为可能是凌晨1时零7分至凌晨1时37分时段的任何时候发生的. 无论如何, 没有证据飞机通讯与报告系统和异频雷达发放机是在不同的时间停止操作的.
(7)
What we can say now is, the last ACARS contact was at 1.07 am, the last
conversation was at 1.19 am, the last transponder contact was unknown, but
quite sure within 1.07 am – 1.37 am. So, still the same question, how is the
1.30 am come about? One report we know is that an aircraft 30 minutes ahead MH370
and en route to Narita Airport (Japan), its pilot claimed to have contacted the
MH370 cockpit just after 1.30 am, this was reported in the New Sunday Times on
March 9 (that means he has been interviewed on March 8). If this (1.30 am) was
considered the time for last contact, then, it should not be matched with the 6o55’N
and 103o34’E, instead, it should be soon (not too long) after 1.19
am, otherwise the logic is not at the right place, at the same time, do not imagine
that time dilation and space or length contraction could happen in this reality.
(7)
我们现在可以说的是,
飞机通讯与报告系统最后的联络时间是凌晨1时零7分, 最后的通话时间是凌晨1时19分, 异频雷达发放机的最后联系时间则不得而知, 不过相当肯定的是凌晨1时零7分至凌晨1时37分之间. 那么, 还是同样的问题, 凌晨1时30分是怎样得来的呢? 我们知道的一则报道是一架在MH370前头30分钟飞往成田机场(日本)的飞机, 其机师称道刚刚凌晨1时30分之后曾和MH370机舱联络过, 这是在新海峡日报于3月9日所报道(那意味他是于3月8日被访问的).
如果这(凌晨1时30分)被考虑为最后的联络时间, 那么, 它就不应该和北纬6度55分和东经103度34分配搭上, 反而, 应该是凌晨1时19分之后不久(不会太久), 不然的话逻辑就不到位了, 与此同时, 别幻想在这现实中时间膨胀和空间或长度收缩会发生.
(8)
Now let’s probe into it from a different angle. If the time when MH370 at 6o55’N
and 103o34’E were 1.30 am, then where should the aircraft be at 1.19
am? (a) Assuming it traveled with 900 km/h during this period, the distance it should
have traveled would be 900x(11/60) equals 165 km or 89 nautical miles, that
means the aircraft were at about Trengganu’s coastline (Remember that 6o55’N
and 103o34’E is about 87 nautical miles from the coast). Then, this
will be contradict with the time 1.07 am when it was said approaching the coast
from inland. (b) If the aircraft was traveling with 600 km/h, the distance it
had traveled would be 600x(11/60) equals 110 km or 59 nautical miles, that is
about 87-59 = 28 nautical miles away from the coastline. Let’s think carefully,
approaching the coast at 1.07 am and about 28 nautical miles from the coast at
1.19 am, how could the 12 minutes interval account for only thirty plus or
forty plus nautical miles it travel? (c) So, with either one of the speeds, it
is not reasonable that at 1.19 am the aircraft was about 0 – 28 nautical miles
away from the Trengganu’s coastline, in other words, it is not logic that at
1.30 am it was at 6o55’N and 103o34’E.
(8)
现在让我们从另一个角度来探讨. 如果当MH370在北纬6度55分和东经103度34分的时间是凌晨1时30分, 那么凌晨1时19分时该飞机应该在那里? (a) 假设它在这段时间内以900公里时速航行, 它航行过的距离是900x(11/60)等于165公里或89海浬, 那就是说该飞机大约在登嘉楼的海岸线(记得北纬6度55分和东经103度34分离海岸大约是87海浬). 然而, 那就有矛盾了既凌晨1时零7分时它是被说从内陆趋近海岸的. (b) 如果该飞机以600公里时速航行,
它航行过的距离是600x(11/60)等于110公里或59海浬, 那就是离海岸线约87-59=28海浬. 让我们仔细的想,
凌晨1时零7分趋近海岸和凌晨1时19分离海岸约28海浬, 这12分钟的时程怎么可能符合它只航行30多或40多海浬? (c) 因此, 无论是以两者之一的速度, 该飞机在凌晨1时19分时离登嘉楼的海岸线约0至28海浬是不合理的, 换句话说, 凌晨1时30分它在北纬6度55分和东经103度34分是不逻辑的.
(9)
Another contradiction is: according to the conversation record between the
MH370 pilot and Air Traffic Control as disclosed on April 1 that, on March 8 at
1.19 am Malaysia ATC informed MH370 to contact Ho Chi Minh ATC, the aircraft should
be on its path entering Vietnam’s airspace in a few minutes later, but how come
it was still in Malaysia airspace at 1.30 am, in the Igari waypoint zone at 6o55’N
and 103o34’E? Based on the above reasoning, obviously there are
doubts in time and space, have the top-notched investigator experts straighten
it out of crooked mystery?
(9)
另一个矛盾就是:
根据4月1日公布的MH370的机师与航空交通控制塔的对话记录, 马来西亚的航空交通控制塔在3月8日凌晨1时19分通知MH370联络胡志明的航空交通控制塔, 该飞机应该在几分钟后在其航道上将进入越南领空, 但是怎么它于凌晨1时30分还在马来西亚的领空, 在伊嘎里航点地带内的北纬6度55分和东经103度34分? 根据以上的推论, 显然的存在着时空上的疑惑, 到底那些顶尖的调查员专家有没有从这歪曲的离奇中顿悟出来?
(10)
If the time when MH370 at 6o55’N and 103o34’E were 1.30
am, the New Zealander at Songa Mercur oil rig platform should have observed the
fireball at compass bearing 254o, not at 265o – 275o
as described in his e-mail, but I believe his direction is the correct one,
because I think he is a person very particular in coordinates precision.
(10)
如果MH370在北纬6度55分和东经103度34分的时间是凌晨1时30分, 那个在“松尔么库儿”钻油台的纽西兰人应该在指南针方位角254度看到火球, 而不会是在他的电邮所描述的265度至275度, 不过我相信他的方向是正确的, 因为我想他是一个很在乎于经纬度准确性的人.
(11)
The conclusion is, at about 1.19 am the aircraft was at 6o55’N and
103o34’E, and at about 1.30 am it would be at another location. This
is different from the report that the last contact time and location is 1.30 am
at 6o55’N and 103o34’E.
(11)
结论是, 大约凌晨1时19分该飞机是在北纬6度55分和东经103度34分, 而大约凌晨1时30分它将是在别的位置了. 这就和报道中的最后联系时间和地点之凌晨1时30分于北纬6度55分和东经103度34分有异了.
时间与位置经纬度(草图1)
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