If The MH370 Submerged In
The Gulf of Thailand
如果MH370沉浸在泰国湾
Nam Fong (Malaysian)
南方 (马来西亚人)
A Malaysia
Airlines flight MH370 departed from Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA) at
12.41 am on 8 March 2014, it was scheduled to arrive at Beijing Capital
International Airport at 6.30 am on the same day. However, the Boeing 777-200ER
aircraft carrying with 239 people, 227 passengers from 15 countries and 12 crew
members, was lost contact with Malaysian air traffic control centre at 1.30 am.
一架马航航班MH370于2014年3月8日凌晨12时41分从吉隆坡国际机场起飞, 它定于同日凌晨6时30分抵达北京首都国际机场. 然而, 该架载有239人, 来自15个国家的227位乘客和12个机组人员的波音777-200ER飞机, 在凌晨1时30分与马来西亚航空交通控制中心失去联络.
After
missing for 44 days, the MH370 has not been found yet, the searching and rescue
operation has become the biggest one in the history of aviation, there are as many
as 26 countries participated in searching for the missing plane, involving many
satellites, military aircrafts, ships and navy vessels, other assets and
equipment. However, the international mission seemed to roll into deadlocks, various
speculations put forward by the investigators and experts are still far from
the truth.
失踪44天了, MH370还没寻获, 该搜救行动已成为航空史上最大的一次, 有多至26个国家参与搜寻这艘失踪的飞机, 涉及多个卫星, 军用飞机, 舰船与军舰, 其他资源和仪器. 但是, 这项国际任务似乎滚进了死胡同, 调查员与专家所提出的各种揣测离真相还远.
Facing
with this sudden and unprecedented incident, although Malaysia government
appeared to react slow and clumsy at some stages, or lack in transparency, but
overwhelming criticism is unfair to us, such kind of unexpected incident if
happens in advanced countries, the situation will not necessary be better than
now, otherwise the international would not call it unprecedented mysterious
aviation incident, even the best expertise and equipment are yet to reveal the
truth. The performance of Hishammuddin (the Malaysia acting Transport Minister)
in handling the incident has been good enough, who else in the country and
other nations could do better than him? Isn’t that the Inmarsat and other
investigation groups also did not disclose certain information to the media and
public in time. I do not think Malaysian government and its authorities
purposefully hiding the truth, instead it is the comments from the media, some
investigator “experts” and netizens that become a driving force pushing it into
untruth.
面对这起突发和前所未有的事故, 虽然马来西亚政府在某些阶段显得反应缓慢和手忙脚乱, 或缺乏透明度,但是过分的批评对我们有欠公平, 这样出乎意料之外的事故如果发生在先进国, 情况未必会比现在的好得多, 不然国际就不会称之为史无前例的神秘空难事故, 甚至最好的专才和仪器也还不能解开真相. 希山慕丁(马来西亚代交通部长)掌理该事故的表现已够好了, 在国内和其他国家还会有谁能做得比他更好? 国际海事卫星组织和其他调查团不也没即时将某些资料透露给媒体和民众吗? 我不认为马来西亚政府与其当局意图隐瞒实情, 反而是来自媒体, 某些调查“专家”和网民的舆论形成一股推动力把它推进虚实中.
The
related authorities should not prohibit input of speculations, as long as it is
not damaging, investigators should gather various possibilities from around the
world, analyze with critical thinking and scientific methods.
有关当局不应该阻挠揣测的注入, 只要它不是破坏性的, 调查员应该搜集来自全世界的各种可能性, 以鉴定思维和科学方法来分析.
A
jumbo that missing without any distress call or signal. Where is the aircraft? To
the west or to the east? Let me analyze with
some retrospective manners, in terms of space and time. The very basic idea is
to determine whether the plane is on the west side (that is including Malacca
Strait, Andaman Sea and Indian Ocean) or on the east side (i.e. South China Sea
and Gulf of Thailand) of the peninsular Malaysia. If the criticisms from media
and public had deterred the search in the South China Sea, who will admit and
bear the responsibility?
一个巨型飞机失踪了却没有紧急求救和讯号. 飞机在那里了? 去了西边或是去了东边? 且让我以一些回顾追溯的方式来分析, 据以空间和时间. 这极为基本的想法是要确定飞机是在半岛马来西亚的西面(那就包括马六甲海峡, 安达曼海和印度洋)或是在东面(既是南中国海和泰国湾). 如果是来自媒体和民众的评论阻遏了在南中国海的搜寻, 谁又会承认和负起责任呢?
(A)
If the MH370 flight ended in the southern Indian Ocean - Indian Ocean Cruise
Theory.
(A)
如果MH370航机在南印度洋总结 - 印度洋漫游理论.
(1)
Let’s begin with the position where the MH370 was thought ended its flight in
the southern Indian Ocean as announced on March 24 by Najib, the Prime Minister
of Malaysia. The conclusion was made by UK’s Air Accidents Investigation Branch
(AAIB) based on the results of data analysis conducted by its investigators and
staff from Inmarsat, the organisation which provided the satellite data. Unfortunately,
that had put us on stage with the consequence of facing criticisms and some
emotional condemns from the China passenger’s families and some China
celebrities.
(1)
让我们从MH370被认为在南印度洋终结的位置开始, 那是马来西亚首相纳吉于3月24日公布的. 那个结论是由英国的航空失事调查部门根据数据分析结果所做的, 由其调查员和来自国际海事卫星组织的职员所处理, 国际海事卫星组织则提供卫星数据. 不幸的, 那已把我们摆上台而其后果就是面对评论和来自中国乘客家属和一些中国名人的情绪化指责.
(2)
After rejected the other possibility that the aircraft flew to northern
corridor, it was deduced the aircraft flew to Indian Ocean. I suppose this is a
speculation basically arose from two major sources of information: first, detection
of an unidentified aircraft by the radar of the Royal Malaysian Air Force
(RMAF), second, the pings received by the Inmarsat satellite. The investigators
collated these two “evidences” and formed a hypothesis that the plane had gone
into the west side of peninsular Malaysia. I will try to show how these two factors
could be independent and not related to each other, but had been mismatched
together.
(2)
排除了飞机飞往北部走廊的另一个可能性后, 那架飞机被推论飞到印度洋去. 我认为这是一个揣测, 基本上由两个主要的情报来源而产生: 第一, 马来西亚皇家空军的雷达探测到一架身份不明的飞机, 第二, 国际海事卫星组织的卫星接收到的脉冲讯号. 那些调查员整理了这两组“证据”以及成立一个假设, 既该架飞机曾经进入半岛马来西亚的西边. 我将尝试说明这两个因素可能是独自的以及两者各无关联的, 却被错误的凑在一起.
(3) Before proceed to the following analysis, we need to know that the
time taken by a flight from Kuala Lumpur to Perth is about 5.5 hours. Taken off
from Kuala Lumpur at 12.41 am to the South China Sea at about 1.30 am, turned
back to the west coast of Malay Peninsula, then “appeared” above the sea of
northern Strait of Malacca at 2.15 am and disappeared toward the northwest at
about 2.45 am, it took about 2 hours; followed by 180o sharp turn
and crossed over the equator to the south “ending point”, more than 2000 km
southwest from Perth, it would need a total of another 6.5-7.5 hours, therefore
it would be a total of 8.5-9.5 hours from Kuala Lumpur to the speculated
“roaring 40” zone. Even if the fuel was sufficient, but the end time should be
about 9.15 am – 10.15 am, it does not seem to be agreed with the final time
(8.11 am) when Inmarsat’s satellite received the last pings from an aircraft. To
the MAS’s MH370 and many people, southern Indian Ocean is really not the
destination yet far too far. In order to make this speculative conclusion, you
need to propose more speculations to support it, but more doubts are thus
created, for instance, did it has enough fuel to travel to such a far-fetched
yet completely landless ocean?
(3) 在未进行以下的分析之前, 我们需要知道从吉隆坡去柏斯的一个航程需时约5.5小时. 凌晨12时41分从吉隆坡起飞到南中国海约凌晨1时30分, 折返往马来半岛的西海岸, 然后“出现”在马六甲海峡北端上空时凌晨2时15分以及往西北消失时约凌晨2时45分, 它用了约两个小时; 接着180度急转南下以及越过赤道到“终结点”, 自柏斯西南方超过2200公里, 它另外需要共6.5-7.5小时, 因此那是总共用了8.5-9.5个小时从吉隆坡飞到揣测中的“怒吼40”地带. 即使燃油足够, 但是终结时间应该是早上9时15分至10时15分, 这不似合乎于国际海事卫星组织的卫星接收到来自飞机最后的脉冲信号的时间(凌晨8时11分). 对马航的MH370和许多人来说,
南印度洋实实在在不是目的地而且太遥远太遥远了. 为了作出这个揣测性的结论, 你需要提议更多的揣测来支持它, 但是更多的疑点因而产生, 例如, 它有足够的燃油飞行到如此偏远而完全没有陆地的海洋吗?
(4)
When the Prime Minister of Australia announced on March 20 that through satellite
images they discovered large objects floating at about 2200 km southwest from Perth,
followed by China, France and Thailand’s (and later Japan) claims that satellite
images discovering debris in the same region or nearby, the investigators seemingly
adjusted the end time from 8.11 am to about 9.15 am. But when the suspected floating
objects were found unrelated to the MH370, the end-point region was moved
northward giving reason that the aircraft traveled at higher speed, that would
mean more agreeable with the fuel consumption and time limit. If move further
northward nearer to the equator, it then could not be consistent in terms of
fuel and time data.
(4)
当澳洲总理于3月20日宣布通过卫星照片他们发现在柏斯西南约2200公里处有漂浮的大物件; 接着中国, 法国和泰国(以及后来的日本)宣称卫星照片在同一地区或附近发现碎片, 调查员似乎把早上8时11分的终结时间调整至约早上9时15分. 但是当那些疑似漂浮物被发现与MH370无关时, 终结区就被往北推移,
而给予的理由是该飞机可能以更快的速度航行, 因而更符合燃油消耗和时间上的限制. 如果往北再推移靠近赤道, 在燃油和时间上的数据则不能一致了.
(5)
Another problem facing us is: to travel such a long time and distance, from
about 1.30 am till 8.11 am (about 6 hours 40 minutes from lost contact spot to
the flight ended spot), it needs a skillful person who must be very familiar
with the operation of this aircraft model Boeing 777 and the aviation flight
path, auto-piloting for such case is unprecedented and unbelievable. So, there
come up with various speculations raised by investigators, such as the
credibility of the pilot and co-pilot, terrorist familiar with the aircraft manoeuvring,
involvement of person who know about auto-piloting and programmes, etc.
Whatever it is, the aimless flying on the large ocean is an unfavoured
saying.
(5)
我们面对的另一难题是: 要航行这么长的时间和距离, 从凌晨1时30分到8时11分(从失联点到终结点大约6小时40分钟), 它需要一个非常熟悉这架波音777型飞机的操作和航空飞行路线的人, 自动导航对于这样的案件是前所未有和难以置信的. 因此, 就出现调查员提出的各种揣测, 例如机长和副机长的诚信, 熟悉驾驭飞机的恐怖份子, 涉及懂得自动导航和程序的人等等. 无论如何, 漫无边际, 毫无目的地的飞翔在大洋上是一个很牵强的说法.
(6)
I firmly believe that the pilots are innocent, they did not conspire to hijack
the aircraft, it is also not possible that no one of them or none of the crew
members react to fight back with terrorists on board. If you try to explain all
these, you will deviate into even more speculations. It is very curious too if
passengers were awake and aware what was happening on board yet nobody seemed
to contact the ground people, unless the incident was too sudden. If there were
hijackers amongst the passengers, that would be a horrible “story”.
(6)
我坚信机师们是无辜的, 他们不会共谋骑劫飞机, 也不可能他们之中一人或没任何一个机组人员做出反抗与机上的恐怖份子搏斗. 若你尝试解释这一切, 你就会偏离去更多的揣测. 也很古怪的是如果乘客们清醒和意识到机上发生什么事却无人联络地面上的人, 除非该事故太突然了. 如果在乘客当中有恐怖份子, 那将是一个可怕的“故事”.
(7)
On March 13, the Wall Street Journal reported that US investigators suspect the
missing MH370 continued flying for a few hours after it was lost contact. On
March 14, the US White House indicated that MH370 may have flown on towards the
Indian Ocean after losing contact. In the next day (March 15), there were
reports that the MH370 was deliberately turned towards the Indian Ocean by
someone with up-to-date knowledge of flying and radar positions. You must be
curious what is the actual basis, but that means the US government or its
agencies might have created some speculations on whereabouts of the aircraft and
driven the whole search to the west.
(7)
于3月13日, 华尔街日报报道美国调查员怀疑失踪的MH370在失联后继续飞行了数小时. 3月14日, 美国白宫表示MH370失联后可能曾飞向印度洋. 隔天(3月15日), 就有报导MH370转去印度洋是由某个有飞行和雷达位置的最新知识的人蓄意所为. 你一定好奇它的确实基础是什么, 不过那意味美国政府或其机构可能制造有关该飞机行踪的一些揣测以及把整个搜寻驱向西边了.
(8)
It has been reported that the analysis method used in the investigation is the
kind never used before, which includes the application of Doppler Effect. Despite
of investigators’ strong confidence, there is no evidence that their new
methodology is absolutely correct, the projection or extrapolation approach may
not work in the way they have expected, for instance, have they any reason to reject
the possibility that if the pings received were from the aircraft submerged in
the South China Sea? Was the “handshake” signal data handled in proper
scientific method without introducing prejudices?
(8)
曾有报导过那个用于调查的分析方法是一类前所未用过的, 那包括采用多普勒效应. 即使调查员有很强的自信, 没有证据他们的新方法是绝对正确的, 推测或推断的途径或许不会如他们所期望般起作用, 例如, 他们有没有排斥所收到脉冲的可能性是来自沉浸在南中国海的飞机? 那些“握手”讯息数据是否以无介入偏见的科学方法来处理?
(9)
According to the announcement made by Angus Houston, the head of Joint Agency
Coordination Centre (JACC) in Australia for the search of missing MAS plane,
there were 7 times of pings “handshakes” received by the Inmarsat’s satellite
in the morning of March 8, which were strongly believed to be emitted by the
MH370. The 7th pings were picked up 8 minutes after the 6th
“handshake” and showing signals different from the previous ones. However, the characteristics
of these pings, such as frequencies, exact times, durations and intervals for the
handshakes were not disclosed. Were these pings not possible to be emitted by
the aircraft from under seawater? If there was misinterpretation of “acoustic
mirage”, the plane could be on the north side of equator. Various information
withheld by Inmarsat and investigators actually should have responsibility for
the delay of searching the MH370.
(9)
根据在澳洲搜寻失踪马航客机的联合协调中心的主任休斯顿的宣告, 国际海事卫星组织的卫星于3月8日接收到7次“握手”脉冲讯号, 很坚信是由MH370 所放射的. 第6次“握手”后8分钟之第7次“握手”的讯号与之前的不一样. 无论如何, 脉冲讯号的特征, 例如脉冲讯号的频率, 确实时间, 持续时间和间隔时间都没被透露. 这些脉冲讯号不可能从海底的飞机放射出来吗? 如果有错误诠译的“传音幻觉”, 该飞机就可能在赤道的北部了. “国际海事卫星组织”和调查员保留的各种资料实际上对延误搜寻MH370应该是有责任的.
(10)
If the MH370 was running out of fuel in the airspace above the southern Indian
Ocean, then the way it ended should be slumping down from high altitude and
smashed on the sea surface, causing it to disintegrate into many pieces of
wreckage, light luggage and goods should be floated on the ocean, however, not
even one piece of debris has been found, therefore so far no finding is consistent
with the pings detected, yet it was claimed to be emitted by the MH370’s black
box.
(10)
如果MH370
是在南印度洋上空耗尽燃油, 那么它终结的方式应该是从高空上坠落以及在海面上撞碎, 造成它分解成很多残骸碎片, 轻的行李和物件应该在海洋上漂流, 但是, 连一块碎片都没被寻获, 因此到目前为止没有和被探测到的脉冲一致的发现, 然而它却被说成是由MH370的黑箱所放射出来的.
(11)
A good hypothesis or theory must always subjects to continuous verification;
proving with positive evidences is inadequate, it also needs “negative
evidences” to un-reject it, so that to make the theory more refine and firm. For
instance, to check out the widespread conspiracy theory, you have to prove that
it was not a jet from Singapore, traveled in the midnight at low altitude along
the middle of the Strait of Malacca, at the north end of the Strait of Malacca,
it climbed up to higher altitude, intended to avoid Indonesian radar, then
diverted into Andaman Sea, turned into Indian Ocean direction, further toward
the US naval base at Diego Garcia island (7o19’S, 72o25’E).
If there was such a plane covered under another plane’s shadow, the act at
night is too dangerous. Nevertheless, you must know that the Strait of Malacca
is the busy flight paths for many civilian aircrafts from Malaysia, Indonesia
and Singapore. [Note: SIA flight SQ68 departs from Singapore on Saturday at 01:10
am en route to Barcelona].
(11) 一个优良的假设或理论必须常常面对不间断的核实; 以正面的证据来证明是不足的, 它也需要“负面的证据”来不排斥它, 这就能使该理论更加精细和坚固. 例如, 为了测出那些广传的阴谋论, 你必须证明那不是一架来自新加坡的飞机, 深夜里在低空沿着马六甲海峡中部飞行, 在马六甲海峡的最北部, 升上更高空, 尝试避开印尼的雷达, 然后转移航道进入安达曼海, 转进印度洋的方向, 再远向美国在迪亚哥加西亚岛(南纬7度19分,东经72度25分)的海军基地. 如果有那么一架飞机被掩饰于另一架飞机的影子下, 那种做法在晚上是太危险了. 虽然如此, 你必须知道马六甲海峡是许多来自马来西亚, 印尼和新加坡的民航飞机的繁忙航道. [注: 新航SQ68航班是星期六凌晨1时10分从新加坡启程飞往巴塞罗纳].
(12)
Similarly, if you could prove that those 4 pings detected by Australian search
team are not on-heat excitement or moaning sounds given out by marine animals
such as whales and dolphins, you will be more confident with the “Indian Ocean
cruise theory”, the other way round, the chain of speculations and evidences
may all collapse.
(12)
同样的, 如果你能证明那4个被澳洲搜寻队探测到的讯号不是由海洋生物如鲸鱼或海豚所发出的春情兴奋或哀号声音, 你就会对“印度洋漫航理论”更有信心, 相反的, 那一连串的揣测和证据就会全部跨下.
(13)
Speculations purported upon other prior speculations eventually will lead you
to a cornerstone. If the investigators believe that their analyses and
hypotheses are extensions from the “evidence” that the aircraft appeared in the
Andaman Sea, they will be committing mutual relying errors. This is a kind of
typical situation where if the conclusion derived from two collated results is
found to be incorrect, there will be pushy accusation against each other. Based
on my opinion, MH370 flown to southern Indian Ocean is yet to be an absolute
truth.
(13)
揣测建立在其他先前的揣测最终将导引你到死角. 如果调查员相信他们的分析和假设是延伸自飞机出现在安达曼海的“证据”, 他们就犯了相互依据的错误. 这是一种典型的情况既如由两个结果得出的结论被发觉是错误时, 就会有互相推搪与指责. 依我之见, MH370飞去南印度洋还不是一个绝对的事实.
(B)
Military radar detection of unidentified aircraft - The Deliberate Turn-Back
Theory.
(B)
军方雷达探测到不明身份的飞机 -
蓄意折返理论.
(1)
Next, let’s analyze the news about radar detection of an unidentified aircraft.
My impression is based on the media, newspapers, television and internet
sources. In the very beginning one or two days after the incident of missing MH370,
there was no mention of radar tracking of the plane from the location it lost contact
off the east coast to the west coast of Malay peninsula. What actually
announced was that blips for a plane were detected by military radar at 2.15 am
about 200 miles (nautical miles) northwest of Penang (nearer to Perak Island),
which is geographically on the west side of peninsular Malaysia. It was disclosed
in skeptical manner, seemed to be half suspicion half confusion whether it was
MH370, the uttering expression was not necessarily reflecting purposeful
cover-up.
(1)
接下来, 让我们分析关于雷达探测到一架身份不明的飞机的新闻. 我的印象是根据媒体, 报章, 电视和网络来源. 在MH370失踪事故后很初始的一或两天, 没有提及飞机从马来半岛的东海岸外失联地点被追踪到西海岸. 确实被宣布的是在凌晨2时15分一架飞机在槟城西北200里(海浬)处咇咇声被探测到, 地理位置上是半岛马来西亚的西面. 那是在欲语犹豫情态下被透露的, 看起来半疑半惑是否MH370, 那种语言表达不一定反映刻意隐瞒.
(2)
Initially it was suspected that the unidentified aircraft was “turning back”,
but at later times the confidence on this hypothesis has been pushed up to become
confirmation. This so-called “turn back” does not mean a “turn back” or diversion
of the MH370 from the east coast to the west coast, instead, it was more likely
the plane detected was making a “right-turning” at the location northwest of
Penang, toward the north or tended to northeast, or followed by a “left
turning” further away to the northwest, then disappeared on radar because it
was beyond the coverage of military radar. The important point is, till today, the
Malaysian military officials never indicate there had been radar tracking of
MH370 across Malay Peninsula. Turning at the northwest off Penang (i.e. on the
west side of Malaya Peninsula) was an “implication”, whereas turning at the
east side of Malay Peninsula was purely an “inference” made by the media,
investigators and those people supporting the conjecture.
(2)
起初时那架身份不明的飞机是被怀疑“折返”, 但后来对这假设的信心却被推上成为确认. 这所谓的“折返”并不意味是MH370从东海岸“折返”或转移至西海岸,
反之, 那被探测到的飞机比较像是在槟城西北地区做了个“右拐弯”, 朝北或偏东北, 或者接下来的一个“左拐弯”往西北更远去, 然后在雷达上消失了, 因为它已超出军方雷达的覆盖范围. 重点是, 直到今天, 马来西亚军方的官方不曾表明雷达追踪着MH370横跨马来半岛.
在槟城西北(既是马来半岛的西边)拐弯是一个“意指”, 而在马来半岛东边拐弯纯粹是由媒体, 调查员和支持这个猜想的人所做的“取意”.
(3)
If the MH370 has been detected at the northwest of Penang, how could it be not
detected when it crossed over the Malay Peninsula? Investigators tried to
explain the speculation that (apart from talking about the efficiency of the radar
systems and operation), the aircraft must be flying at low altitude (such as
12,000 feet or even 5,000 feet) in order to avoid radar detection, that has to
be deliberately done by someone very familiar with the control of aircraft, suspicion
of hijacking is thus arose, alternatively, the aircraft was engaged in auto-piloting
and flew on with “so-smart” programme.
(3)
如果MH370在槟城西北部被探测到, 怎么可能当它横跨马来亚半岛时没有被探测到? 调查员尝试解释该揣测(除此不谈雷达系统和操作的效率), 那飞机必须是低空(例如12,000尺甚至5,000尺)飞行既以避开雷达的侦测, 那就应该是由某个非常熟悉控制飞机的人蓄意所做, 骑劫的疑点因而产生, 另一择项是, 该飞机已被进档为自动导航和以“非常精明”的程序飞行呢.
(4)
Another doubt is also arose, when flying at low altitude, could it still
traveling at high speed such as 850 km per hour? If it was travelling at about
600 km/h at 12,000 feet, consider the time taken from about 120 nautical miles (about
200 km) off east coastal Kota Baru (where MH370 lost contact at 1.30 am), plus
the time across the Malay peninsula, plus the time arrived at 200 nautical miles
northwest off Penang (at 2.15 am), can the total time required tally with duration
of 45 minutes? If it was flown even lower at 5,000 feet and very high speed to
avoid radar, could its fuel last till 8.11 am? (1 nautical mile » 1.852 kilometres, 1 latitude degree = 60 nautical
miles » 111 km).
(4) 另一个疑点也就产生了, 当低空飞行时, 它还能以高速如850公里的时速飞行吗? 如果它以600公里的时速在12,000尺航行, 考量所用的时间从东海岸外约120海浬(约200公里)(当凌晨1时30分MH370失联之处), 加横跨马来半岛的时间, 加抵达槟城西北200海浬(凌晨2时15分)的时间, 总共所需的时间符合45分钟的时距吗? 如果它以更低至5,000尺和很高速来闪避雷达, 其燃油可用到凌晨8时11分吗? (1海浬 » 1.852公里, 1纬度= 60海浬 »111公里).
(5)
Yet some more doubts arise, if the aircraft flew at low altitude with high
speed, could people on the ground not alerted by the noise of the plane? Could
all passengers and crew on board not aware, yet nobody make mobile phone call
or send sms? Flew at low altitude with high speed also means much higher fuel
consumption, then, could its fuel storage sufficient for it to reach the southern
Indian Ocean?
(5)
然而更多的疑点产生了, 如果飞机以高速在低空飞行, 陆地上的人们会没留意到该飞机的噪音吗? 可能机上的所有乘客和机组人员都没察觉到, 而没一个人打流动电话或寄短讯吗? 在低空高速飞行也意味更高的燃油消耗, 那么它的燃油足够让它到达南印度洋吗?
(6)
At Igari waypoint at about 1.30 am, if the MH370 did made a turn-back while
maintained with high speed, its flight path should be a large curvature, then
most likely it would have crossed over the airspace above southern Thailand. If
it made a sharp turn back with slower speed, it could have been crossing the
Kelantan airspace, the people there should have seen it flying to the west. But
haven’t seen any news about report by people (from these regions) claiming this
plane was flying to the west.
(6)
在伊嘎里航点大约凌晨1时30分, 如果MH370保持以高速折返, 其飞行航线应该是一个大弧形, 那么很大可能它横跨泰国南部的上空. 如果它以较慢的速度做急转, 它应该有横跨吉兰丹的上空, 那里的人应该看见它是飞向西方. 但是不曾见到新闻报道有人投报该飞机飞向西方.
(7)
Basically, there is no concrete evidence to support that MH370 had made a turn-back
off the east coast, across the Malay Peninsula, which could be above the
Thailand’s southern region rather than the Malaysia airspace. On March 19, the
Thai Air Force conceded that its military radar had picked up MH370 just
minutes after it was diverted, I guess it was said to be 5 to 15 minutes after about
1.25 am, however, that did not indicate tracking of the aircraft across the
Malay Peninsula.
(7) 基本上, 没有坚固的证据支持MH370曾从东海岸外做了一个折返, 横跨马来半岛, 那应该是在泰国南部上空而非马来西亚的领空. 于3月19日, 泰国空军承认其军用雷达在MH370偏移航道数分钟后探测到它, 我猜想那该是说凌晨约1时25分后的5至15分钟, 无论如何, 那并不表示追踪着飞机横跨马来半岛.
(8) To further support this point of view,
that the linking of disappearance of MH370 in the east coast with the
appearance of a plane in the west coast, the investigators and media come up
with another speculation, that the MH370 aircraft had avoided the Indonesia
military radar by flying low across the Sumatra airspace, but this had been
denied by Indonesian Air Force. Again it is a thought basis that the aircraft
was controlled by a skilled person who should be very familiar with operation
and aviation. Their ultimate idea is seemed to be linking up the southern
Indian Ocean cruise theory with the conspiracy theories including hijacking or
personal deliberation, otherwise it could not stand.
(8)
为进一步支持这一观点, 既把MH370 在东海岸失踪和在西海岸出现一架飞机的事连接起来, 调查员和媒体就提出另一个揣测, MH370 飞机曾经低空飞行以避开印尼的军事雷达以及越过苏门答腊的领空, 不过这已被印尼的空军否定了. 这又是一个想象基础, 那架飞机是由熟练的人并且非常熟悉操作与航空的人所操控. 他们最终的想法似乎要把南印度洋漫航理论连接阴谋论包括骑劫或个人蓄意, 不然的话它就不能成立了.
(9)
As reported in a news statement: “The international investigation team and the
Malaysian authorities remain of the opinion that up to the point at which MH370
left military radar coverage, its movements were consistent with deliberate
action by someone on the plane”. What is the basis for them to say so? Out of
239 people on board, 227 passengers have been confirmed not associated with
terrorism or deliberate action. Scrutiny put on the pilots and crew members so
far failed to reveal this mystery. If terrorism and personal conspiracy do not
stand, why should the plane be there in the Andaman Sea or Indian Ocean?
(9)
就如一则新闻报告的陈述: “国际调查小组和马来西亚当局仍然维持之前的看法, 即客机在离开军事雷达的覆盖范围之前, 其航行方式是机上某个人的蓄意行动”. 他们如此说的基础是什么? 机上的239人当中, 227位乘客已被确认和恐怖主义或蓄意行动无关联. 对机师和机组人员的严谨彻查至今仍未成功揭开这神秘事件. 如果恐怖活动和个人阴谋不成立, 为什么飞机会在安达曼海或印度洋?
(10)
According to an information reported by the New Strait Time on April 12, that
there was a “desperate call” made by the co-pilot Fariq Abdul Rahman as the
plane flew near Penang, but the mobile phone call was ended abruptly, not before
contact was established with a telecommunication sub-station in Penang,
however, the exact position and time were not mentioned. Why should only
co-pilot could make the call but not any other people? The call if were from
200 nautical miles northwest of Penang would be too far away, otherwise the
news should be untrue. Now and then, there are auxiliary information emerging,
it could only be helpful when verified as evidence, otherwise it only mess up
the investigation.
(10)
根据于4月12日一个由新海峡时报报道的情报, 当该飞机飞近槟城时副机师法力克阿都拉曼拨了一通“紧急”电话, 但是那通电话突然中断了, 在与槟城的一个电讯分站取得联系之后的, 然而, 确实的位置和时间没被提及. 为何只有副机师可以打通电话而非任何其他人呢? 那通电话如果是来自槟城西北200海浬处未免太远了,不然的话该则新闻就不应属实. 目前与稍后, 有辅助性资料一直涌现, 只有被检测为证据后才会有帮助, 不然的话只会把调查搞得更乱.
The
two groups of information mentioned above seem to complement each other. The supporters
for Inmarsat’s pings detection and proposed Indian Ocean cruise would defend their
conclusion by including the claim the aircraft has been detected in the Andaman
Sea, whereas supporters for Malaysian military’s radar detection could backup
the turn-back cruise by arguing that the aircraft has been ended in the
southern Indian Ocean as suggested by investigators using the Inmarsat’s data. We
must beware of this kind mutually supporting efforts which are typical fallacy in
research and investigation, which is also not uncommon in humanity affairs.
以上所提及的两组资讯似乎相互充数. 国际海事卫星组织探测到脉冲信号及建议印度洋漫航的支持者将会为其结论辩护包括了该飞机曾经在安达曼海被侦测到的说法, 而马来西亚军方的雷达侦测可支持折返漫航, 其支持者将争辩该飞机在南印度洋终结, 曾被应用国际海事卫星组织的数据的调查员所说的. 我们应该小心这类互相支配的努力, 那是研究与调查的典型谬误, 在人类事宜上也是常见的.
(C)
If the MH370 is in the east side of Malay Peninsula - The First Scene Submerge
Theory.
(C)
如果MH370在马来半岛的东部 - 第一案发现场沉浸推论.
(1)
All sorts of doubts and all kinds of speculations have brought the whole world investigation
into deadlock. If for flying to the west gives too many uncertainties and
doubts are seemed no ending, why not go back to the last seen spot or the first
scene of incident and nearby area where the missing occur?
(1)
种种的疑问和种种的揣测把全世界的调查带入死胡同了. 如果飞去了西边给太多不确定和疑点有如无止尽, 为什么不回到它失踪的最后被见到地点或事故第一现场和毗邻区域?
(2)
The main stumble facing the investigators is preconception, that when a plane
crashed into sea, it would smash into wreckage and disintegrate into debris, it
is a conventional presumption generally adopted in investigation of aviation accident.
The investigators and experts in the very beginning of search and rescue operation
should theorize alternatively that the aircraft might have done “sea-landing”,
and eventually submerged some tens of metres under the sea.
(2)
调查员所面对的主要困惑是先入为主之见, 既是当一架飞机撞入海时, 它将会撞破成残骸和分解成碎片, 那是航空意外调查所采用的一贯常规假定. 那些调查员和专家们在最初始搜救时就应该另做推论该飞机可能做了“海上降陆”, 以及最终沉浸在数十公尺之下的海底.
(3)
In the first one to three days after the MH370 missing, a few witness reports had
been lodged at police stations in Kota Baru, the capital of Kelantan state. But
in the later international investigation, i.e. a few days after the missing
incident and till now, the witnesses’ “evidences” were apparently ignored or no
longer seriously taken into consideration. This is a kind of fatal mistake in research
or investigation, because any inconspicuous clues should not be overlooked. Why
the high technology is so absolutely reliable, whereas the sayings of
Kelantan’s simple and ordinary people are hard to be trusted?
(3)在MH370 失踪的首一至三天,
有几宗目击报案已在吉兰丹州首府哥打峇鲁的警察局投报. 但是在后来的国际调查中, 既是失踪事故几天后至今, 那些目击者的“证据”显然被忽略或不再被严谨的考虑. 这是研究与调查的一种致命性错误, 因为任何不显眼的线索都不应该被忽视. 为何高科技是如此绝对的可靠, 而吉兰丹普通和纯朴人民的话就难以信赖呢?
(4)
News sources: (a) One fisherman reported on March 9 (Sunday) that on Saturday
(March 8) at 1.30 am, while fishing with a friend in the coastal area of
Kelantan, he saw fireball of an aircraft flying at high speed at low altitude. (b)
A businessman in Kelantan also lodged a report (on March 10) that on Saturday
morning he saw a bright white light descending at high speed toward the South
China Sea. (c) Villagers from Marang in Trengganu have reported and claimed
that they heard a loud explosion in the Saturday morning. (d) A worker from a European
company’s offshore oil rig platform at the north sea of Kota Baru, reported there
was a plane flying low toward southwest direction (but if this direction is in contradiction,
then it needs to be reinvestigated and verified). In order to help searching
the MH370, the investigators and authorities must verify which of the above
reports are relevant and reliable.
(4)
新闻来源: (a)
一个渔民于3月9日(星期日)报案称在星期六(3月8日)早上1时30分, 他看见一架飞机火球以高速于低海拔飞行, 当时他正与一个朋友在吉兰丹海岸地区钓鱼. (b) 在吉兰丹的一个商人也报了案(于3月10日)称在星期六早上他看见一个明亮的白光以高速朝南中国海降低. (c) 登嘉楼马江的居民曾报案称在星期六早上他们听见大爆炸声. (d) 在哥打峇鲁北部, 一个来自欧洲公司的岸外钻油台工人报案称有一架飞机低飞朝西南方向(但是若这个方向有矛盾, 它就必须被重新查清核证). 为了协助寻找MH370, 调查员和当局必须查证以上那一些投报是有关和可靠的.
(5)
According to reports described by these people, a plane was flying low toward
the north direction and tended to the east, but my analysis is that it was diverting
from the normal to-the-east flight path, taking left turn toward the north,
which means toward the Thailand airspace (Because the most north side in the
east coast of peninsular Malaysia is the Kelantan state, with its neighbour is
Thailand). This flight diversion and turn-back movement should not be merely
presumed as hijacking or deliberate action, instead, another possibility could
be considered as the protocol steps taken for emergency and safety purposes, and
intended for landing at the Kota Baru Airport.
(5)
根据这些人的报案所描述, 一架飞机低飞朝北方向, 偏移向东部, 不过我的分析是它从正常的往东航线偏转过来, 做着左转朝北方向, 意思就是朝向泰国领空(因为半岛马来西亚东海岸的最北处是吉兰丹州, 与它毗邻的是泰国). 这个飞机偏离和折返的举动不应该纯粹假定为骑劫或蓄意行动, 反而, 另一个考虑的可能性是作为紧急和安全用意的步骤, 以及有意在哥打峇鲁机场降陆.
(6) A reliable and very detailed information
is that came from an oil rig worker (from New Zealand) Mike McKay who claimed
in an e-mail (the letter was written on March 12, but he had tried to contact
the Malaysian and Vietnam officials several days before, that could be March 8
or 9), that he saw a burning object (plane) at high altitude (in the distant
sky), appeared to be in one piece, going down at the right timing when MH370
was missing, so he believed it was the Malaysia Airlines plane. The duration of
time from when he first saw the burning (plane) until the flames went out
(still at high altitude) was 10-15 seconds. He was on the oil rig Songa Mercur
some 300 km southeast off Vung Tau. The burning was on a compass bearing of 265o
to 275o (or precisely due west) from his surface location of the
observation at Latitude 08o22’30.23” N and Longitude 108o42’22.26”
E. He observed there was no lateral movement, so it was either coming toward
his location, stationary (falling) or going away from his location. He
estimated the general position of the observation was perpendicular or
southwest of the normal flight paths, and at a lower altitude than the normal
flight paths, on the compass bearing 265o to 275o intersecting
the normal flight paths and at normal altitude but further away, about 50-70 km
distance from him.
(6) 一个可靠和很详尽的资料是来自一个钻油台工人麦克麦卡(自纽西兰), 他在一个电邮称(该信是在3月12日所写, 不过之前几天他尝试联络马来西亚和越南官方, 那应该是3月8或9日), 他看见一个燃烧的物体(飞机)在高海拔(在远处天空), 看似一块的, 是MH370失踪同时坠落,
因此他相信那是马航飞机. 从他一开始看见燃烧(飞机)到火焰熄灭(仍在高海拔)的时段是10至15秒. 他是在“松尔么库儿”钻油台, 在头顿岸外东南约300公里. 那个燃烧体在指南针方位角265度至275度(或精确的正西)对比他的观察之表面位置在于北纬08度22分0.23秒和东经108度42分22.26秒. 他观察到的是没有横向移动, 因此它是往向他的位置, 静止的(落下的)或远离他的位置. 他估计那个大概观察位置是正常航道的垂直或西南方向, 以及较正常航道低的海拔, 在指南针方位角265度至275度, 与正常航道交叉, 以及在正常的海拔但是朝更远处, 与他的距离大约50至70公里.
(7)
Based on the New Zealander’s description, the burning plane should be moving
toward the northwest side, not the southeast side of the Igari waypoint, where
the Vietnamese and other teams had searched and found nothing at the site. I
believe the situation he encountered was a kind of delusive phenomenon, what he
saw was virtual images on horizon frames looked like 50-70 km from his
position, in fact the real images could be about 600 km away and behind the distant
horizon, because the plane was still high above the sea level, there was
bending and refraction of lights passing through the atmosphere with its air density
increasing downward (to the sea surface direction), this will thus enable him
to observe the burning object although on the other side of horizon, yet it
looked so much nearer suggesting a kind of effect alike to mirage.
(7)
根据那个纽西兰人的描述, 那个“燃烧的飞机”应该是朝伊嘎里航点的西北而非东南移动. 我相信他所遭遇的是一种错觉现象, 他所观察到的是海平面框架上的虚拟画面看起来象是距离他的位置50至70公里, 其实实际的画面可能在海平线后面约600公里以外, 由于该架飞机仍然在海平面的高处, 光线的弯曲或折射经过大气而空气的密度则往下时增加(朝海的表面方向), 这就能够使到他观察到即使是在海平线另一边的燃烧物体, 然而它看起来那么近, 可建议为一种如海市蜃楼的效应.
(8)
Another independent clue that something unusual happened on board is the claim by
a pilot from another flight bound for Narita Airport (Japan), who had traveled
about 30 minutes ahead the MH370 at the time 1.30 am. It was reported by New
Strait Times on March 9, the next day after MH370 missing. He was asked by the Vietnamese
air traffic control to contact the MH370 by using emergency frequencies, he heard
mumbling from the other end, there was a lot of interference sound and then lost
connection, but he did not hear Mayday distress call. Have this pilot’s words been
trusted and taken seriously? If the MH370 co-pilot was in trauma situation,
what will you expect the pilot and other crew members could do? It is hard to imagine
if you say all the witnesses mentioned above are “unplanned-togetherly” lying
about the missing MH370.
(8)
另一个独立性的线索既机上发生不寻常的事, 是由来自另一架飞往日本成田机场的飞机机师所指出, 他是在凌晨1时30分时已航行在MH370的前头30分钟. 那是3月9日既是MH370失踪的隔天由新海峡时报所报道的. 他是被越南航空交通控制塔要求用紧急频率来联络MH370, 他听见来自另一边的喃喃自语, 那儿有很多干扰的声音, 过后就失去联络, 但是他没有听到紧急求救呼叫. 那位机师的话有被信取和注重吗? 如果那位MH370副机师正处于创伤的处境, 你期望机师和其他机组人员能做到什么呢? 很难想象如果你说上面所提起的全部目击者都不约而同的在为失踪的MH370撒谎.
(9)
The University of Science and Technology of China announced on March 14, that its
researchers had detected a “seafloor event” in the South China Sea at 2.55 am
on March 8, the coordinates of the area was 7o25’N, 104o30’E,
near the marine border between Malaysia and Vietnam, 116 km “southwest” from
where the last contact with the MH370 was recorded, might be caused by MH370
crashed into the sea. However, there is some confusion about the coordinates
and direction. If the MH370 plunged into the Gulf of Thailand before 2.00 am,
then sank to the seabed at 2.55 am, it might cause a “seafloor event”, but
there is some contradiction in geographical position.
(9)
中国科学技术大学于3月14日公布, 其研究人员于3月8日凌晨2时55分侦测到在南中国海有一起“海底事件”, 该区域的经纬度是北纬7度25分, 东经104度30分, 是马来西亚和越南海域交界处的附近, 是记录到MH370最后失联地点“西南方”的116公里处, 可能是由MH370航班坠海所造成.
不过, 经纬度和方向有些混淆. 如果凌晨2时零分之前MH370插进泰国湾, 然后凌晨2时55分沉到海床, 它可能引起一个“海底事件”, 但是在地理位置上有些矛盾.
(10)
The key fundamental question: did fire happen in the aircraft? If the
investigators believe there was a fire on board in the South China Sea
airspace, would you expect the pilots were not wounded, or someone else manoeuvring
the plane, or the plane was auto-piloted, it “knew” when to dive lower across
Malay peninsula, it could find where and when to surge up in the northwest off
Penang, turned here and there, then decided to continue traveling another 6
hours plus and a few thousand kilometres for a “no-where” or “suicide journey”,
when fuel finally finished, it slumped into the southern Indian Ocean without
any debris found, are you constructing a mystery and fabricating miracles? The
hypothesis is too “dragful”. If there was no fire, a jumble of speculations
thus proposed to explain why the aircraft flew in that way, however, linking
the plane’s movement to deliberate action by pilots or crew members seemed even
more out of tunes.
(10)
关键的基本问题:
飞机上有发生火患吗?
如果调查员们相信飞机上在南中国海上空发生了火患, 你会期望机师们没受伤, 或者有其他人驾驭该飞机, 或者该飞机正处于自动导航, 它“知道”何时潜低横跨马来半岛, 它会找到何处或何时在槟城西北处升高, 转这儿转那儿, 然后决定继续航行了6个小时多和数千公里的“不知何处”或“自尽旅途”, 当燃油最后耗尽时, 它就掉进南印度洋而没有任何碎片被寻获, 你们是在承造一个奥秘和编制奇迹吗? 这假设未免太牵强了. 如果没有火患, 一堆杂乱的揣测被提出来解释为什么飞机那样飞行, 无论如何, 将飞机的移动牵连到机师或机组人员的蓄意行动似乎更离谱了.
(D)
If the MH370 had gone down into the Gulf of Thailand.
(D)
如果MH370掉入了泰国湾.
(1)
Another key question: Did the aircraft crash into wreckage and breakdown into
debris? When you can’t find the aircraft wreckage, first you will complain the
ocean is too big, then you will say all of the debris sank into water too deep.
The Strait of Malacca is shallow than 40 m and narrow than 100 km, the Java
Sea’s average depth is 46 m, yet there are sunken ship debris found after some
hundreds of years. So, what make you think that the whole MH370 definitely
cannot be in one piece sink into the sea of average depth 45 m?
(1)
另一个关键问题:
那飞机有撞毁成残骸或分解成碎片吗? 当你找不到飞机残骸时, 首先你会投诉那海洋太大了, 然后你将会说全部碎片沉入海太深了. 马六甲海峡是浅于40公尺和窄于100公里, 爪哇海的平均深度是46公尺, 然而还有沉船的残骸数百年后被寻获. 所以, 是什么让你想象一架完整的MH370确实不可能整架沉进平均深度45公尺的海里呢?
(2)
The movie Airport ’77 produced in 1980 is forgotten by most people, in which a
plane crashed into the ocean and submerged 100 feet under sea water. The MH370
might have encountered some scenes alike to those in the movie, except that
fire and minor explosion might have occurred inside the MH370 plane. Let’s not
forget the tragedy too which happened in the year 1977 on 4th of
December, the hijacked MAS Flight MH653, departed from Penang but did not land
on Kuala Lumpur’s Subang Airport, instead it diverted to the south and crashed
at Tanjung Kupang in Johor, about 300 km away from its destination.
(2)
那部1980制作的电影“机场77”被大多数人遗忘了,
戏里头一架飞机坠入海洋以及沉浸在100尺的海水下. 这MH370就可能遭遇一些和电影里相同的情景, 除了MH370飞机里可能发生了火患和小爆炸. 也别忘了1977年12月4日发生的悲剧, 被骑劫的马航班机MH653, 从槟城起飞但没在吉隆坡梳邦机场降陆, 它反而转向南部以及在柔佛的丹绒古邦坠毁, 距离目的地约300公里.
(3)
On 14 August 2005, the Greek Helios Airways Flight 522 departed from Cyprus’s
Larnaca International Airport, but did not arrive in Athens as scheduled, about
1 hour 20 minutes later it crashed into a mountain which is only 40 km from
Athens, it was thought that a lack of oxygen incapacitated the cockpit crew, the
aircraft was then flew on autopilot mode, but eventually crashed after running
out of fuel, however, the conclusion seemed to be very doubtful. One of the probable
causes of fire on board is “blow torch” in the cockpit, as an accident occurred
three years ago in an EgyptAir’s Boeing 777 aircraft in the Cairo International
Airport on 29 July 2011, luckily that was happened before the flight took off, all
of the 291 passengers were evacuated, but it took 1 hour to put off the fire.
(3)
于2005年8月14日, 希腊“太阳神”航空的522航班从塞浦路斯的拉纳卡起飞, 但没有按照时间表抵达雅典, 大约1小时20分钟后它坠落于距离雅典只有40公里的一座山里, 有认为是缺氧使到驾驶舱人员失去能力, 该机后来以自动导航模式飞行, 但最终耗尽燃油后撞毁, 无论如何, 那个结论似乎很有可疑. 机上火灾的一个可能导因是驾驶舱内发生“喷火枪”, 就如三年前于2011年7月29日在开罗国际机场的一架埃及航空的波音777飞机发生的意外, 所幸的那是在飞机起飞之前发生, 所有291乘客都疏散了, 但用了1小时扑灭该火患.
(4)
By putting the four cases mentioned above together, it will give you a simple
logic theory. If there was a fire on board, do not set your mind and hope a miracle
that it could fly all the ways from Igari waypoint to southern Indian Ocean, we
must realize that it is not a clean straight flight path as for the Flight 522.
(4)
将以上提及的四个事件凑在一块, 那就给你一个简单的逻辑理论. 如果机上有火患, 就别刻意期望一个奇迹它能从伊嘎里一路飞到南印度洋去, 我们必须明了那不是有如522航班的平直航道.
(5)
For an aircraft which has caught on fire, I do not believe it could become a
“ghost plane” to fly on aimlessly, smartly hiding away from radar detection
while cruising for about 5,000 kilometres or farther. 7-Hour auto-piloting is
unprecedented for the MH370, even though the Flight 522 was thought on
auto-piloting but only for less than 2 hours, moreover it was along the path
toward its destination with only slight diversion, that is considered as a
“clean” path without turning here and there.
(5)
对于一架已着火的飞机, 我不相信它变成“幽灵飞机”毫无目的地飞, 精明到一边躲避雷达探测一边漫游约5,000公里或更远. 对MH370来说7小时的自动导航是前所未有的, 即使522航机被认为是自动导航也少过2个小时, 更何况它是沿着飞往目的地而只有些微偏离的航道, 即是一条没转这转那的“整洁”航道.
(6)
I rather hypothesize it did not cross over the peninsular Malaysia’s 4 states,
Kelantan, Perak, Kedah and Penang, but rather it could only travel for a shorter
limit such as about 300 kilometres away from its last contact position. Besides,
I also have my common sense for the pilots that they tried to turn back or think
of an airport or at least the ground for landing, thus it should have turned
left while maintain at slower high speed, meanwhile descending slowly, and the nearest
target was to Kota Baru or the mainland. However, the incident happened on
board was too sudden and the situation was out of control, “sea-landing” was
the only choice or the eventual outcome would be so.
(6) 我宁可假设它没有跨过半岛马来西亚的4个州, 吉兰丹, 霹雳, 吉打和槟城, 而它仅能航行了较短的极限例如离开最后的失联位置约300公里. 此外, 我也为机师做普通意识, 既是他们尝试转回头或想到一个机场或至少地面以做为降陆, 因此它应该是向左转时仍然保持较慢的高速, 同时缓慢降低, 而最近的目标是去哥打峇鲁或大陆. 可是, 机上发生的事故太突然以及情况失控, “海上降陆”就是唯一的选择或者那是最终的结果了.
(7)
For this MH370 tragedy, there are many clues for you to determine whether the
aircraft is there or not there, to the left or to the right, but if you made
wrong interpretation, you may not find it even after many years. No matter how,
it is unwise to abort the SAR mission in the Gulf of Thailand. Although it has
been overly confident that there are many evidences to support the “Indian
Ocean Cruise Theory”, but there is no concrete evidence that MH370 is not in
the South China Sea. Once we are convinced that fire occurred in the cockpit,
it clears most of the doubts, and we could zoom in to a smaller search area in
the Gulf of Thailand.
(7)
对于MH370这个悲剧, 有很多线索可让你判断该飞机有在那儿还是不在那儿, 向左还是向右, 但是如果你做错诠释, 你可能多年后也不会找到它. 不管怎样, 取消在泰国湾的搜救任务是不明智的. 虽然曾有过度的自信认为很多证据支持“印度洋漫游的理论”, 但是没有确凿的证据MH370不在南中国海.
当我们确信机舱发生了火灾, 那就釐清多数的疑点了, 而我们就能放大在泰国湾里的一个较小搜查范围.
(8)
Although the official time when the aircraft lost contact was said to be 1.30
am, the exact time its contact system shut off has not been precisely
established without the black box record, but the time the incident began
should be during 1.20-1.25 am.
(8)
虽然飞机失联的正式时间据说是凌晨1时30分, 联络系统关掉的确实时间在没有黑箱的情况下还未能确定, 不过事故发生的时间应该是凌晨1时20分至凌晨1时25分的时段.
(9)
My hypothesis is: at about 1.20-1.25 am on March 8 (this should be the time
when ACARS and transponder switched off or disfunction), as the MH370
flying at high altitude along its normal flight path and entering the Igari waypoint
zone, fire started in the cockpit. Roughly before 1.25 am, the aircraft began
to turn left, that was toward the north and tended to west, this will explain
why in the search and rescue operation conducted during March 8-14, the
aircraft or its wreckage could not be found in the east side and southeast side
of the Igari waypoint and nearby search area.
(9) 我的假设是: 3月8日凌晨约1时20分至1时25分(这应该是飞机通讯寻址与报告系统和异频雷达发放机被关掉或失去功能的时间), 当MH370沿着其正常的航道以高速飞行以及进入伊嘎里航点地带时, 驾驶机舱开始着火. 大约凌晨1时25分之前, 该飞机开始左转朝向北方以及偏向西方, 这就解释为什么在3月8日至14日所进行的搜救行动中, 飞机或其残骸没有在伊嘎里航点的东部和东南部或邻近的搜寻区域被找到.
(10)
In the next 30 minutes or so (that is 1.25 am–1.55 am, during the time fireball
was observed), the aircraft descended slowly and had flown for about 200-300 km,
do not hope it could fly for more than 1 hour after the fire had started. The
aircraft has been engaged into auto-piloting, its turning mechanism might have
jammed, it followed a curving path, reached the sea surface before about 1.55
am. I guess the MH370 had gone down into the west side of the Igari waypoint
zone, on the northwest region of the normal flight path, most probably just around
the northwest corner of the previous search area, that means around 9.0oN
and 102.0oE.
(10)
在接下来的约30分钟(既是凌晨1时25分至凌晨1时55分, 当火球被观察到的时候), 该飞机缓慢降低以及飞行了约200至300公里, 别期望它火灾开始后能飞超过1个小时. 该飞机曾进入自动导航或者其转弯机制已卡住了, 遁随一个弯曲航线, 约凌晨1时55分之前抵达海面. 我猜测MH370已掉进伊嘎里航点地带的西部, 在离正常航道的西北区域, 极可能就在之前寻找区的西北角周围, 意思就是北纬9.0度和东经102.0度的周围.
(11)
Let’s compare the above points of view with the “turn-back theory”, by
simulating two possible flight paths from the last contact location in the
South China Sea. (a) If the aircraft diverted from its normal flight path at
1.21-1.25 am, i.e. immediately after the last contact, maintained at its high
speed, thus making a large curvature “turn-away”, lowered down its altitude to
5,000-12,000 ft, crossed over the southern Thailand, directed toward the point
200 nautical miles northwest of Penang, so the distance (~640 km) – time (45
min.) – speed required (~850 km/h) could reasonably tally each other. (b) If
the aircraft diverted from its normal flight path at 1.21-1.25 am, i.e.
immediately after the last contact, slowed down at lower speed, deliberately
made a sharp “turn-back”, lowered down its altitude to 5,000-12,000 ft, flew
through only Malaysia airspace, turned toward the point 200 nautical miles northwest
of Penang, so the distance (~720-750 km) – time (45 min.) – speed required (~960-1000
km/h), this is estimated by assuming the same speed was maintained for the
whole journey, not yet counted for any slowdown, so it may not tally each other
or only marginally tallied.
(11)
让我们拿上面的观点和“折返理论”做个比较, 从在南中国海的最后联络位置模拟两个可能的航道. (a) 如果飞机在凌晨1时21分至1时25分偏离它的正常航道,
既最后联系后的即时,
保持着其高速,
因而做了一个大弧度的“折弯而去”, 降低其海拔高度到5,000至12,000尺, 跨过泰国南部,
朝槟城西北200海浬地点直去,
因此距离(约640公里)-时间(45分钟)-所需速度(约850公里时速)可合理的各自符合.
(b) 如果飞机在凌晨1时21分至1时25分偏离它的正常航道, 既最后联系后的即时, 放缓至较慢的速度, 蓄意做了一个急“折返”, 降低其海拔高度到5,000至12,000尺, 只飞过马来西亚领空,
转向槟城西北200海浬地点去, 因此距离(约720至750公里)-时间(45分钟)-所需速度(约960至1,000公里时速), 这是假设整个航程保持同一个速度来估计的, 还未计算任何放缓, 因此它可能各自不符合或只是稍微的符合吧了.
(12)
Based on the above estimation, it is greater possibility that the MH370 did not
cross over peninsular Malaysia, I am very confident to theorize that the aircraft
is submerged in the Gulf of Thailand.
(12)
基于以上的估计,
比较大的可能性MH370没有横跨半岛马来西亚, 我很自信的推论那架飞机沉浸在泰国湾.
(E)
Searching strategy at around 9.0oN, 102.0oE.
(E)
北纬9.0度, 东经102.0度附近的搜寻策略.
(1)
The investigators and related authorities must seriously reconsider their decision
for the search only focused in the Indian Ocean, because the possibility that
the aircraft submerged in the South China Sea is not definitely zero. While the
search in the southern Indian Ocean is ongoing, I suggest they should resume
search operation in the Gulf of Thailand by sparing about 10% of manpower and
assets deployment.
(1)
调查员和有关当局必须慎重地从新考虑他们只注重于印度洋的搜寻决策, 因为飞机沉浸在南中国海的可能性并无确定为零. 正当在印度洋进行着搜寻的同时, 我建议他们应该恢复在泰国湾的搜寻行动, 给予约10个百分比的人力和配备遣送.
(2)
During the earliest first to third days after the missing incident, search and
rescue operation was focused on the Igari Waypoint zone, it was then expanded
to a larger area covering 14,440 square nautical miles in the South China Sea.
However, other than Igari Waypoint zone, the emphasis was also put on the east
side and southeast side within the approximate boundaries of 6oN to 9oN,
and 102oE to 105oE.
(2)
失踪事故后的最初第一至第三天, 搜救行动是集中于伊嘎里航点地带, 过后在南中国海扩大到更大的覆盖面积14,440平方海浬. 无论如何, 除了伊嘎里航点地带,
其重点也放在大概北纬6度至北纬9度, 和东经102度至东经105度界线内的东部和东南部分.
(3)
The early SAR strategies in the South China Sea have been largely focused on
sea surface search, it was hoped to find aircraft debris afloat by using satellites
or visual searching, unfortunately nothing related to MH370 has been found, and
the SAR operation had been called off completely on March 15. Albeit many
miracles have been thought to be, possibility that a whole-piece body of
aircraft plunged into the sea has not been recognized. The investigators need
to admit too not even one piece of debris found in the southern Indian Ocean.
(3)
之前在南中国海的搜救策略大致上是专注于海面上寻找, 希望用卫星或肉眼搜查来找到漂浮的飞机碎片, 不幸的没有发现与MH370有关的东西, 该搜救行动在3月15日也完全被取消了.
虽然很多奇迹都曾被想出来了, 躯体完整一块的飞机插入海里的可能性却不曾被认可. 调查员也需承认在南印度洋连一块碎片也没被寻获.
(4)
I recommend the following search strategies:
(4)我建议以下的搜寻策略:
(a) Search area:
(i)
Set a search area within the boundaries of 7.5oN to 9.5oN
and 101.5oE to 104.0oE, a square tipping upon the
northwest side of the normal flight path. (99.9% be there).
(ii)
Within the square area, set a curved segment area with coordinates 8.0oN
and 104.0oE, 8.0oN and 103.0oE, 8.5oN
and 101.5oE, 9.5oN and 102.0oE. (99% be
there).
(iii)
Within the curved segment, simulate a curved descending path for the aircraft deviated
from its normal flight path, begins at about 1.21 am (7.1oN, 103.65oE),
through 1.30 am (8.0oN, 103.55oE), 1.40 am (8.65oN,
103.0oE), and ending at 1.55 am (9.0oN, 102.0oE).
[The so-called last contact position at 6o55’N and 103o34’E
(i.e. 6.92oN and 103.56oE) as reported is likely to be at
about 1.19 am rather not at 1.30 am]. (95% be there).
(a)
搜寻范围:
(i)
设定一个搜寻范围于北纬7.5度至北纬9.5度和东经101.5度至东经104.0度的界线内, 一个方格顶端于正常航道的西北面. (99.99巴仙在那).
(ii)
在方格范围内,
设定一个段片既以经纬度北纬8.0度和东经104.0度, 北纬8.0度和东经103.0度, 北纬8.5度和东经101.5度, 北纬9.5度和东经102.0度. (99巴仙在那).
(iii)
在段片内, 模拟一条飞机从正常航道偏离出的弯曲空降轨道, 始于约凌晨1时21分(北纬7.1度和东经103.65度), 经过凌晨1时30分(北纬8.0度和东经103.55度), 凌晨1时40分(北纬8.65度和东经103.0度), 以及结束于凌晨1时55分(北纬9.0度和东经102.0度). [那个被报道的最后联系位置北纬6度55分和东经103度34分(既北纬6.92度和东经103.56度)应该是在约凌晨1时19分而非凌晨1时30分]. (95巴仙在那).
(b) Search plan and
operation:
(i)
In the first stage, begin searching at 9.0oN and 102.0oE
as the central point of a circle or square, with diameter or length of 5 km,
then extend to 20 km in diameter or length, followed by 50 km in diameter or
length (90% be there).
(ii)
Second stage, search along the curved descending path, cross sweeping within a width
of 20-50 km, till the 1.30 am coordinates (8.0oN, 103.55oE).
(iii)
Third stage, search the rest of area within the curved segment.
(iv)
Fourth stage, search the rest of area within the square.
(b)
搜寻计划与行动:
(i)
在第一阶段, 在以北纬9.0度和东经102.0度为中心的圆圈或方格开始搜寻, 以5公里做为直径或长度, 然后延长到20公里的直径或长度, 接着50公里的直径或长度(90巴仙在那).
(ii)
第二阶段, 沿着弯曲空降轨道搜寻, 在一个以20至50公里的宽度内横扫, 直到凌晨1时30分的经纬度(北纬8.0度和东经103.55度).
(iii)
第三阶段, 搜寻段片内剩余的地区.
(iv)
第四阶段, 搜寻方格内剩余的地区.
(c) Search methods to be
used when carry out undersea search:
(i)
By snorkeling or scuba diving for visual search.
(ii)
Use 500-1000 fishing trawlers to comb sweep the area with trawling nets, beware
of the coral reefs.
(iii)
Use pinger locator or sonar detectors, etc.
(iv)
Use submersibles including submarines.
(v)
Need to alert the blocking by ridges and trenches in the uneven seabed.
(b)
进行海底搜寻时可用的搜寻方法:
(i)
以气管浮潜或“斯库巴”潜水做为肉眼视觉搜索.
(ii)
用500至1000拖网鱼船以拖网梳式横扫该地区, 小心珊瑚礁.
(iii)
用声脉冲定位仪或声纳探测器等.
(iv)
用潜水设备包括潜水艇.
(v)
必须留意被不平整海床里的峭壁和海渠遮掩.
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